SAN ANTONIO—Demand and prices for beef and most poultry products are strong, but many challenges are creating uncertainty for both livestock producers and consumers.

Ongoing avian influenza outbreaks, contraction in the cattle industry, higher interest rates, inflation-driven input costs and trade disputes are all causing fluctuations in the market.

Experts briefed farmers on these issues recently at a workshop called “Bucking the Trends? Livestock Market Insights for 2025” at the American Farm Bureau Federation Annual Convention in San Antonio. Virginia Farm Bureau Federation members were among over 5,000 farmers and ranchers in attendance.

Bernt Nelson, an AFBF economist, said three consecutive years of drought have led to prolonged consolidation of the U.S. cattle industry, with a surge of female cattle being placed on feed for market.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Cattle Inventory report released Jan. 31 confirmed Nelson’s estimates of slowed market contraction and lower inventories. All cattle and calves on Jan. 1, 2025, totaled 86.7 million head—down about 1% from 2024. Beef cows that have calved dropped to 27.9 million—a record low since 1965—and those expected to calve were down about 2%.

Cash prices for fed steers have recently hit record highs—helping with profitability for sellers while creating obstacles for farmers hoping to expand.

“Livestock prices are better, and they’re going to help with some profitability this year, but it’s going to be harder for a newcomer to buy in,” Nelson noted. “We’re going to have to start breeding and growing our cattle to obtain profitability.”

He said the first chance of market expansion could occur in 2026 if more heifers are held back for future breeding this year. But low inventories are going to “keep things volatile and beef prices headed toward record levels.”

Nelson noted that consumers are still willing to pay a premium price for beef. But the potential for tariff-induced trade wars are sowing uncertainty, and even small changes in demand could have a big impact on prices.

“So how long can our demand sustain record beef prices—can it?” he mused. “This will dictate how well this market holds together, even with our tighter cattle supplies this year.”

Meanwhile, an uptick in highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks is making waves in the poultry industry, with about 18.2 million birds affected in December 2024 alone. National egg prices have shot up 30% from last year, and turkey growers contended with tight margins and high risk.

While broiler chicken production has kept pace with historically high demand, potential disruptions from HPAI outbreaks could inflate prices.

On a lighter note, the hog sector is seeing some efficiency gains with a record number of 11.92 pigs saved per litter. Lower feed costs also have improved profitability for producers, according to Tyler Cozzens, director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

He added that roughly one in every four hogs produced in the U.S. is destined for an export market, with Mexico making up a significant portion of demand.

Media: Contact Nelson at 202-406-3643 or Cozzens at Tyler.Cozzens@lmic.info.